Extreme Event Quantification for Rogue Waves in Deep Sea

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• Tobias Grafke, University of Warwick
• Thursday 16 May 2019, 12:00-13:00
• Watson LT A.

If you have a question about this talk, please contact Fabian Spill.

A central problem in uncertainty quantification is how to characterize the impact that our incomplete knowledge about models has on the predictions we make from them. This question naturally lends itself to a probabilistic formulation, by making the unknown model parameters random with given statistics. Here this approach is used in concert with tools from large deviation theory (LDT) and optimal control to estimate the probability that some observables in a dynamical system go above a large threshold after some time, given the prior statistical information about the system’s parameters and its initial conditions. We use this approach to quantify the likelihood of extreme surface elevation events for deep sea waves, so-called rogue waves, and compare the results to experimental measurements. We show that our approach offers a unified description of rogue wave events in the one-dimensional case, covering a vast range of paramters. In particular, this includes both the predominantly linear regime as well as the highly nonlinear regime as limiting cases, and is able to predict the experimental data regardless of the strength of the nonlinearity.

This talk is part of the Applied Mathematics Seminar Series series.

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• Applied Mathematics Seminar Series
• School of Mathematics Events
• Watson LT A

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